[SMM Analysis] Accelerated Implementation of Oman's Green Hydrogen Strategy: National Ambitions and Industrial Realities Behind the Commencement of Shuangliang-ACME Project

On June 1, 2025, in the Duqm Special Economic Zone of Oman, the million-ton-scale green ammonia project by China's Shuangliang Group and India's ACME Group officially broke ground. This $1.7 billion mega-project marks a critical turning point for Oman's national hydrogen strategy, transitioning from paper planning to large-scale implementation.
 

I. National Blueprint: The "Green Transformation Equation" of a Desert Nation

(1) Top-Level Strategy: Three Core Objectives and Implementation Pathways

Oman's Ministry of Energy outlined a clear roadmap in the *National Hydrogen Strategy 2050* released in 2024:

graph TD

A[Resource Monetization] --> A1(Idle Deserts → Energy Bases)

A --> A2(Sunlight Advantage → Low-Cost Green Electricity)

B[Economic Transformation] --> B1(Reduce Oil and Gas Dependency from 68% to 35%)

B --> B2(Create 200,000 Jobs)

C[Geopolitical Hub] --> C1(Asia-Europe-Africa Hydrogen Trade Transit Hub)

C --> C2(Global Hydrogen Supply Share ≥7%)

(2) Hydrom Model: An Innovative "National Operator" Mechanism

Oman's National Hydrogen Company (Hydrom) oversees the entire landscape through a tripartite separation of powers mechanism:

• Land Control: Divides deserts into 50×50 km² blocks for tender (6 blocks currently released)

• Pricing Authority: Innovates the HyFix fee model (land rent + green hydrogen production share)

• Infrastructure Dominance: Unified planning of port/pipeline network infrastructure

2025 Milestones:

• Two Rounds of Tenders Awarded: 12 international companies secured 8 million tons of green hydrogen capacity (equivalent to Germany's 2030 target)

• Project Distribution Map:
  https://example.com/oman-h2-projects-map.png [Note: This is a schematic location]

II. Industrial Breakthrough: The Strategic Implications of the Shuangliang-ACME Project

(1) Core Project Data Analysis

(2) Oman's Government "Three Birds with One Stone" Strategy

1. Technology Transfer: Shuangliang will transfer electrolyzer technology to the Duqm Free Zone

2. Market Binding: ACME secures a 600,000 tons/year off-take agreement with Japan's Marubeni

3. Infrastructure Drive: Builds Oman's first hydrogen pipeline network (Duqm-Sohar section)

III. Development Status: Three Key Challenges Amidst Rapid Progress

1. Water Resource Constraints

• Current Situation: 9 kg of freshwater required to electrolyze 1 kg of hydrogen
• Conflict Point: Seawater desalination costs $0.5/m³ for coastal projects, $1.8/m³ for inland projects
• Breakthrough Case: BP's Dhofar project reduces costs by 30% using atmospheric water harvesting technology

2. Power Grid Challenges

• Core Conflict: Mismatch between PV power generation peaks and electrolyzer operating curves
• Actual Data: 18% curtailment rate of PV power generation in May 2025 (higher than the expected 12%)
• Solution: ACME project includes 200 MWh of flow battery energy storage

3. Talent Gap

• Local Engineer Proportion: Less than 15% (mainly reliant on technical personnel from China, India, and Germany)
• Education Layout: Muscat University of Technology establishes a new Hydrogen Energy Engineering College (annual capacity of 200 students)

IV. International Competition and Cooperation: Strategies to Counter Saudi Arabia's Impact

Develop a blockchain system for green hydrogen traceability

• (2) Strengthening Differentiated Competitive Advantages

• Shipping Cost Differential: $18/mt lower freight to Rotterdam than Saudi Arabia

• Carbon Tax Penetration: World's first country to mandate green hydrogen carbon footprint certification

  • Application Scenario Innovation:

  • Green steel project with Germany's ThyssenKrupp (to commence production in 2026)

Oman Air's SAF fuel trial (blending green hydrogen derivatives)

V. Future Outlook: The Critical Window Period from 2025-2030

1. (1) Three Critical Threshold Predictions
2. 2026: Green hydrogen cost breaks through $1.3/kg (PV PPA drops to $1¢/kWh)
3. 2028: Mandatory localization rate increases to 50% (triggers equipment manufacturing transfer wave)

2030: Hydrogen energy accounts for 20% of export value (surpasses LNG as the second pillar)

(2) Potential Risk Alerts

A[Geopolitical Risk] --> B(Yemen conflict affects hydrogen pipelines)

C[Technology Iteration] --> D(Solid oxide electrolyzers disrupt existing technologies)

E[Financing Environment Deterioration] --> F(Sovereign credit rating downgraded to BB+)

Conclusion: The Hydrogen Dialectic of a Desert Oasis
As Shuangliang Group's pile driver pounds into Duqm's red earth, Oman's green transformation is undergoing a qualitative shift from blueprint to reality. This nation, once reliant on oil and gas, is now forging a new energy lifeline in its sun-scorched deserts. The essence of the green hydrogen economy is not merely a competition of resource endowments, but a marathon of institutional innovation and perseverance in execution. Facing Saudi Arabia's capital dominance and Europe's technological barriers, Oman has chosen a unique middle path—using the state-led Hydrom mechanism as a shield and open, inclusive international cooperation as a spear.
As Energy Minister Salim al-Aufi stated at the groundbreaking ceremony, "We are not just selling hydrogen; we are selling tickets to an industrial revolution powered by desert sunlight." The ultimate value of these tickets will be revealed over the next five years.